HomesEstimate
An estimated value for an individual home.
Calculated from recent sales and public data, it’s a starting point in determining a home’s value and is not a formal valuation. The HomesEstimate is calculated fortnightly.
The HomesEstimate is our estimated market value, computed using a proprietary formula. It is not a formal valuation. It is a starting point in determining a home's value. The HomesEstimate is calculated from public data, registered valuer's valuations, and real estate agent CMA's. For a formal valuation your real estate agent or registered valuer physically inspects the home and takes special features, location and market conditions into account.
We encourage buyers, sellers and homeowners to supplement the information provided here by doing other research such as:
- Getting a comparative market analysis (CMA) from a real estate agent
- Getting a formal valuation report from a professional property valuator
- Visiting the house (whenever possible)
- Getting a building inspection carried out
- Obtaining the local council Land Information Memorandum (LIM) report
The HomesEstimate’s accuracy depends on the availability and accuracy of council and sales data in an area. Below is a table showing the accuracy of the HomesEstimates in comparison to subsequent sales values throughout the last 3 months.
| Median Error | Within 10% | Within 20% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 8.57% | 55.59% | 81.67% |
| Christchurch | 5.3% | 71.3% | 87.78% |
| Hamilton City | 5.64% | 67.63% | 90.18% |
| Wellington | 8.87% | 54.02% | 76.18% |
| Tauranga City | 6.62% | 66.05% | 86.42% |
| Dunedin City | 5.8% | 70.75% | 85.77% |
| Selwyn District | 4.59% | 75% | 88.11% |
| Whangarei District | 7.35% | 66.06% | 83.94% |
| Waimakariri District | 4.27% | 84.49% | 93.05% |
| Waikato District | 6.92% | 65.03% | 85.79% |
| Hutt City | 5.6% | 63.74% | 80.22% |
| Waipa District | 5.69% | 68.79% | 88.44% |
| Palmerston North City | 4.83% | 77.19% | 91.81% |
| Napier City | 5.66% | 70.24% | 82.74% |
| New Plymouth District | 6.29% | 66.87% | 84.94% |
| Invercargill City | 6.81% | 68.9% | 91.46% |
| Hastings District | 5.47% | 69.33% | 85.33% |
| Kapiti Coast District | 6.54% | 65.03% | 85.31% |
| Far North District | 9.36% | 52.67% | 75.57% |
| Queenstown Lakes District | 7.45% | 60.94% | 81.25% |
| Marlborough District | 5.82% | 70.63% | 84.92% |
| Rotorua District | 5.89% | 63.03% | 86.55% |
| Tasman District | 4.42% | 75% | 87.07% |
| Horowhenua District | 8.12% | 58.16% | 81.63% |
| Nelson City | 4.36% | 72.92% | 91.67% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | 6.48% | 66.67% | 79.57% |
| Whanganui District | 8.16% | 57.61% | 85.87% |
| Ashburton District | 6.65% | 62.92% | 91.01% |
| Western Bay Of Plenty District | 7.51% | 61.36% | 79.55% |
| Timaru District | 6.27% | 70.45% | 92.05% |
| Porirua City | 6.15% | 66.67% | 88.89% |
| Upper Hutt City | 6.13% | 72.84% | 88.89% |
| Taupo District | 7.8% | 59.15% | 76.06% |
| Manawatu District | 5.55% | 67.65% | 88.24% |
| Gisborne District | 6.57% | 70.49% | 90.16% |
| Kaipara District | 9.13% | 56.67% | 70% |
| Southland District | 12.54% | 39.66% | 75.86% |
| South Taranaki District | 10.77% | 46.43% | 71.43% |
| Matamata-Piako District | 9.28% | 51.85% | 85.19% |
| Masterton District | 7.36% | 60.38% | 84.91% |
| Central Otago District | 6.68% | 62.26% | 83.02% |
| Hurunui District | 8.08% | 62.22% | 86.67% |
| Waitaki District | 6.01% | 65.91% | 79.55% |
| Clutha District | 10.84% | 45.71% | 80% |
| South Wairarapa District | 7.47% | 63.64% | 78.79% |
| Gore District | 12.9% | 48.39% | 64.52% |
| South Waikato District | 14.47% | 42.86% | 64.29% |
| Whakatane District | 10.18% | 46.43% | 71.43% |
| Hauraki District | 11.03% | 46.15% | 73.08% |
| Carterton District | 5.99% | 76% | 88% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | 6.63% | 54.17% | 66.67% |
| Ruapehu District | 9.1% | 55% | 80% |
| Tararua District | 10.61% | 50% | 85% |
| Buller District | 9.3% | 55.56% | 83.33% |
| Grey District | 13.83% | 38.89% | 55.56% |
| Rangitikei District | 8.07% | 52.94% | 76.47% |
| Waitomo District | 9.36% | 53.33% | 86.67% |
| Kawerau District | 5.43% | 71.43% | 85.71% |
| Waimate District | 5.8% | 81.82% | 90.91% |
| Otorohanga District | 7.97% | 70% | 80% |
| Opotiki District | 7.86% | 70% | 80% |
| Mackenzie District | 4.58% | 90% | 100% |
Median Error:
The median percentage difference between the price that a property sells for and the HomesEstimate at the time of sale.
Within 10% of Sale Price:
This is the percentage of transactions in a region for which the HomesEstimate fell within 10% of the subsequent sales price.
Within 20% of Sale Price:
This is the percentage of transactions in a region for which the HomesEstimate fell within 20% of the subsequent sales price.
Example:
A property with a HomesEstimate of $630,000 recently sold for $670 000. In this case the difference between the two values is 5.97% ([$670,000-$630,000]/$670,000) which means it falls within category "HomesEstimate within 10%"
Note: These percentages are calculated by comparing each sales transaction occurring in the last 3 months with the HomesEstimate we published immediately before that sale occurred.
We refresh the HomesEstimate for all homes usually once a fortnight. The number of transactions in a geographic area affects how much we know about prevailing market values of homes in that area. More transactions equals more usable data and improves the accuracy of the HomesEstimate. Also, we use public and user-provided data for house attributes. The more attributes we know about homes in an area (including yours), the better the HomesEstimate.
The HomesEstimate for a property can change when the property sells, a real estate agent provides a market appraisal or a homeowner provides a valuation from a registered valuer. Updating the HomesEstimate in this way is a unique service that homes.co.nz offers. Homes.co.nz acknowledges that an algorithm is unlikely to be as accurate as a physical inspection so we defer to the industry experts when we can to provide the most up-to-date and accurate estimates of a property’s value. Any agents providing a market appraisal do so in accordance with the REA guidelines, including ensuring any appraisals realistically reflect current market conditions.
We use proprietary automated valuation models that apply advanced algorithms to analyze our data to identify relationships within a specific geographic area between this home-related data and actual sales prices. Home characteristics such as house size, location or the number of bathrooms are given different weights according to their influence on home sale prices in each specific geography over a specific period of time. This resulting in a set of valuation rules, or models that are applied to generate each home's HomesEstimate. Specifically, some of the data we use in this algorithm include:
Physical attributes:
Location, land area, house size, number of bedrooms, bathrooms and many other details.
Rates assessments:
Property rates information, actual rates paid, exceptions to rates valuation assessments and other information provided by the local council records.
Prior and current transactions:
Actual sale prices over time of the home itself and comparable recent sales of nearby homes.
The HomesEstimate is a starting point in figuring out the true value of a house. The amount of data we have for the house affects the HomesEstimate accuracy.
Price history and property facts:
Check to see if your price history (the sale price and date you bought your home) and property details (house size, land area and age of construction) are correct on homes.co.nz. Depending on the area in which you live, this can be a big factor in your HomesEstimate.
Updates and renovations explained:
Most upgrade information is not in the public records and is not easily quantifiable. We do not know about home updates and renovations unless they have been reported to your local council, so those items are not used in HomesEstimate calculations. There is no way for us to systematically gather and verify the type of remodel or build information where the value is based upon how the final product appeals to the buyer. Because of this, the algorithm can't use that information.
There a number of reasons why the HomesEstimate might be quite different from your current Rating Value. These include:
- Ratings Values are calculated at quite long intervals, usually every three years. The HomesEstimate is re-calculated every month. In your case, the market values for your area might have moved a long way from the last Rating Value. Hopefully the HomesEstimate has moved in line with the market.
- Your house may be quite different from the typical house in your area (significantly larger/smaller house, views, newer/older). In this case automated valuation models like the Rating Value and HomesEstimate can struggle to get an accurate estimate of the market value for a property capturing its unique situation. And the Rating Value and HomesEstimate may have missed the mark by very different amounts!
- Your property may have been substantially altered since the last Rating Value (e.g. an extra bedroom added, a new garage built, or a piece of land sub-divided off the section). If this alternation has been correctly captured in the council records, the HomesEstimate will reflect the alteration, but the Rating Value won’t necessarily until the next round of general assessments.
- The information in your council record may be incorrect (i.e. wrong house size, number of bedrooms or type of construction). Both the rating Value and the HomesEstimate may be misled in the calculation to a different degree.
Absolutely not. The HomesEstimate is not a formal valuation and you won't be able to use it in place of a valuation, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. homes.co.nz does not offer the HomesEstimate as the basis for any specific real-estate-related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the HomesEstimate is simply a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.